Top 10 Rookies in 2023
The 2022 season brought MLB fans one of the most exciting rookie classes in years headlining American League Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez and National League Rookie of the Year Michael Harris. Aside from these two, there was a laundry list of other rookies who made an immediate impact on their respective big league club in 2022. We were a bit spoiled this past season and with the 2023 season creeping up on us in just a few months, we need to move on and take a look at the future. In this article I will be discussing my favorite rookies going into the 2023 season.
Per usual, I had a bit of trouble narrowing this list to only 10 players so I’m going to throw up 3 honorable mentions as a preamble to our Top 10. Also keep in mind that in order to qualify as a rookie, a player must not exceed 130 MLB AB’s or 50 innings pitched.
VIDEO: EURY PEREZ 2022 AA HIGHLIGHTS
Eury Perez leads off this Honorable Mention list after putting up some attractive numbers as the youngest pitcher in AA during the 2022 season. One of the tallest players in professional baseball at 6’8”, Perez generates incredible downhill plane on his mid to upper 90’s FB. His best secondary pitch is a filthy change-up with great sink and arm side run that sits in the upper 80’s. I’ve watched a significant amount of video on Perez and he’s made some AA hitters look foolish with the fish. His least lethal pitch would be his breaking ball which has decent 12/6 movement but lacks a sharp bite making it a liability at the big league level. As a 19 year old in AA, Perez held a 1.14 WHIP with a 4.40 K/BB ratio. If he can stay healthy and continue to dominate the front half of the 2023 MiLB season, we could see him called up to the big show as a reliever. My big concern here is whether his breaking ball will develop enough to get him into a starting rotation long term. He’s also the only player on this list that does not have a 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Card but he could be a prime candidate for 2023 Bowman which releases this Spring.
VIDEO: OSWALD PERAZA 2022 MLB HIGHLIGHTS
Peraza got off to a hot start in his professional debut with the Yankees in 2022 hitting .306 while posting excellent K#’s for a fresh big leaguer. His MiLB performance over the last two years has been stellar to say the least as he showed off the ability to hit for average, power, and steal bases at will. He’s also one of the top SS defender’s (if not THE top) in a stacked Yankees farm system. He held a 1.000 fielding percentage across 12 games between SS and 2B for the Bronx Bombers. Many of you may be asking why is Peraza not ranked in the Top 10? There are a few things worth mentioning here as you dig further into his MLB stats and watch some video. Peraza’s average exit velocity of 81.6 was nearly 10 MPH below the 2022 MLB league average. He also posted a 57.5% GB rate with a .359 BABIP. You can see this data come to life when you watch the video of Peraza’s 2022 MLB highlights. The majority of his hits are GB’s with quite a few seeing eye singles sprinkled on top along the way. My point is that even though Peraza hit .306 - there was quite a bit of luck involved. His swing tends to get long at times but he makes up for it with his plus raw strength. All of those things aside, he only had 49 professional AB’s, made a TON of contact, and held great K#’s in his debut so there’s a very good chance he keeps up the offensive production in 2023. You can find Oswald Peraza’s 1st Bowman Chrome Autograph in 2020 Bowman Chrome (auto only) for around $60 right now.
VIDEO: ANTHONY VOLPE 2022 MiLB HIGHLIGHTS
Anthony Volpe is one of my favorite prospects in the MiLB but his path isn’t quite clear going into the 2023 season with the Yankees having so much depth at the major league level (which is 90% of the reason I have him ranked so low). We could see a late season call-up here but I don’t anticipate Volpe exceeding rookie limits in the 2023 season. I can easily see him being in the Top 3 on this list going into the 2024 MLB season. Defensively, Volpe is a wizard with his wheels and glove but may ultimately shift to 2B to better suit his arm strength. I’ve seen him make some incredible plays at SS in the MiLB and I forecast his defensive value at 2B to be ELITE at the big league level. He’s got great instincts on the base paths matched with excellent speed making him a serious threat once he reaches base. I really like the hit tool as well. Volpe’s quick hands work tight to his body allowing him to make hard contact throughout the strike zone producing above average power to all sides of the field. His K#’s have remained in great standing throughout his career and I can see him being a legitimate lead off hitter in the Bronx. I’ve watched a ton of video on Volpe and there’s just something about him that pulls me in. He’s got the “IT” factor and the way he plays reminds me a lot of a former Yankee Hall of Fame SS that I grew up watching as a kid. Volpe has an auto and a 1st Chrome Prospect card in 2020 Bowman with the last raw base auto comping in at $700 on December 28th.
VIDEO: TRISTON CASAS 2022 MLB HIGHLIGHTS
Leading off our Top 10 Rookies in 2023 list is Triston Casas. He only had 76 AB’s in 2022 so he will enter the 2023 season this Spring still under rookie status. In those 76 AB’s Casas hit 5 HR’s which would put him somewhere close to 30 HR’s over the course of a full 450 AB season. He’s got great plate discipline, backed by excellent K#’s in his professional debut in 2022, which allows him to really maximize his raw power to all fields. I’ve seen him turn a 95 MPH fastball high and tight in the zone for a HR with his quick hands and short lefty stroke. He posted an average exit velocity of 85 MPH and peaked in 2022 with a max exit velocity of 110.5. Casas also didn’t show any significant struggles, split wise, versus lefties and righties. He only posted a .197 batting average in his professional debut but didn’t catch many breaks with a .208 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). Another lackluster stat from his small sample size was a 56% ground ball rate. Casas had great K#’s which lead me to believe the average will come and if he can get the ball in the air more he could be a very destructive bat in the Bosox lineup in 2023. You can find his 1st Chrome Prospect cards and Autos out of 2018 Bowman Draft with his autos comping around $80 right now.
VIDEO: EZEQUIEL TOVAR 2022 MLB HIGHLIGHTS
Ezequiel Tovar was having an incredible Minor League season in 2022 before being sidelined for a groin injury from July to September. Between AA & AAA he hit .319 with a .221 ISO and a near 20% K rate. He was promoted to the MLB, at the age of 21, after Brendan Rodgers suffered a hamstring injury in late September. Tovar has one of the smallest MLB sample sizes on this list at only 33 AB’s and will maintain his rookie eligibility going into the 2023 season. His professional debut wasn’t much to talk about but he made some hard contact with an average exit velocity of 89 MPH while only committing a single error in 78 innings at SS for the Rockies. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination which sometimes gets him into trouble making poor contact outside of the strike zone. If he can brush up his approach in 2023 he could see him continue to hit for average and a bit of power at the MLB level. Tovar has the ability to impact the game on both sides of the field making him very valuable, long-term, in an organization lacking in several areas. Tovar has a 1st Chrome Prospect Card and 1st Autograph in 2021 Bowman Chrome. His 1st Autos are selling for around $50 which seems quite cheap for his upside.
VIDEO: CURTIS MEAD 2022 MiLB HIGHLIGHTS
I’m going with Curtis Mead in the #7 spot because he’s one of my favorite bats in all of Minor League Baseball. He’s yet to make his professional debut but path to the MLB became less crowded after Ji-Man Choi was traded to the Pirates this off-season. Mead’s defensive ceiling is quite low compared to some prospects on this list. He split time between 2B and 3B between AA and AAA in 2022 but will most likely end up at 1B at the Major League level. Despite his lack of defensive value, Mead can rake. He’s shown the ability to hit for average and power across his MiLB career making consistency his most valuable tool. There aren’t many players in professional baseball that boast a .300+ career batting average matched with a .200+ career ISO. Mead also possess an advanced approach at the plate backed by his incredible career K#’s. Mead may never razzle and dazzle with his glove but he’s got an ELITE bat that has proven it’s worth year in and year out. Curtis Mead has a 1st Chrome Prospect Card in 2022 Bowman along with a 1st Autograph Card comping around $60 out of the same release.
VIDEO: FRANCISCO ALVAREZ 2022 MiLB HIGHLIGHTS
Francisco Alvarez comes in at #7 on this list with his 70 grade raw power that plays just as high in-game. He’s a no-neck, ball of muscle that is quite agile for his build. If you watch the video above, you will see a ball he launched over the scoreboard in Reading that disappeared into the night sky. The problem is that outside of his monstrous in game power, there isn’t much else going on. Alvarez isn’t quite ready to take on the everyday responsibilities for the Mets in 2023 and Pete Alonso isn’t going anywhere at 1B. Alvarez’s path became much more clear after the new CBA implemented the Universal DH in 2023. He should be able to make his presence known offensively next season at DH while he continues to develop his catching skills behind the scenes. Alvarez hit .277 in AA but his average dipped all the way to .234 in AAA. He may only be a .240 - .250 hitter at the MLB level but he should be good for at least 30+ HR’s a year over the course of a full season. Francisco Alvarez only has a 1st Chrome Autograph card in 2020 Bowman Chrome. These cards don’t pop up often with the last sale of a raw base 1st Chrome autograph occuring on December 29th for $200.
VIDEO: MIGUEL VARGAS 2022 MiLB HIGHLIGHTS
It was hard for me to keep Miguel Vargas out of my Top 5 but he lands at #6 on this list. Vargas has an offensive profile very similar to Curtis Mead but he has a but more defensive upside. Vargas split time between LF and 3B in 2022 leading me to believe the Dodgers are attempting to get his bat in an MLB lineup as quickly as possible. They also dished Justin Turner and only signed J.D. Martinez to a one-year contract which expires at the end of the 2023 season. Vargas is another unicorn bat with a career .300+ BA, .200+ ISO, and phenomenal K#’s. He’s done a lot of work on the physical side to improve his speed and body. I don’t see him being an impact runner at the MLB level but he’s become a much better athlete since he was signed in 2018. If you watch the video you will see that he has easy pop to all sides of the field with a smooth right handed swing. The path to the big leagues in the Dodgers Organization is a very difficult one, but I think they will find a way to get Vargas consistent AB’s in 2023 - he’s really got nothing left to prove at the Minor League level. Vargas has both a 1st Chrome Prospect Card and 1st Chrome Autograph in 2020 Bowman with his auto comping around $90 right now.
VIDEO: O’HOPPE TURNS AROUND 90 MPH HIGH AND TIGHT
I featured O’Hoppe on a Sleeper Prospects Video last year in March. He also popped up on several of my Prospect Hot Sheet videos during the 2022 MiLB season. O’Hoppe is a guy I’ve been high on for quite a while now, but after an extraordinary year in 2022 he broke into MLB.com’s Top 100 list and was no longer a sleeper prospect. My biggest fear with O’Hoppe was how he would fit into a Phillies lineup behind one of the best offensive catchers in the game, JT Realmuto. That fear was squashed after he was traded to the Angels for Brandon Marsh making him almost a shoe-in for the backstop job in 2023. He showed off his hit and power tools this past season in AA holding a .283 BA and a .261 ISO. His setup is a bit funky but he creates a lot of vertical leverage in the box which will help him get to balls in the upper half of the zone (where a lot of arms are going these days). O’Hoppe also had some of the best K#’s of any player in the upper minors in 2022. He’s big league ready behind the plate and club officials rave about his leadership skills and make-up. You may disagree but I feel like Logan O’Hoppe will finish in the Top 3 in voting for American League Rookie of the Year in 2023. Logan O’Hoppe only has a 1st Chrome Autograph in 2020 Bowman Chrome which sells for around $45 at the moment.
VIDEO: GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ 2022 MiLB HIGHLIGHTS
Grayson Rodriguez was drafted in the 1st round of the 2018 draft at age 18 and throughout his journey has developed into one of the MiLB’s top arms. Rodriguez stands around 6’5” and generates exceptional down-hill plane in the bottom half of the strike zone. His heavy, 95+ MPH fastball also gains quickly on hitters in the top half of the strike zone, which he commands well. Rodriguez’s fastball is enhanced by one of the best change-ups in the MiLB. It plays very well off his elevated FB with incredible sink and near perfect speed differential. If you watch the video, you’ll see how badly hitters are fooled by just his change-up and fastball combination. G Rod’s third pitch is a 12-6 breaking ball that he can flip into the zone for early strikes and bury to finish aggressive hitters off. His career stats hold up very well against his stellar 2022 season where he had a sub 1 WHIP with a 3.89 K/BB ratio and an opponent batting average of .176. Rodriguez could be part of the Orioles starting rotation in 2023 and with his ability to dominate the strike zone vertically, have a legitimate shot at AL ROY honors as well. Grayson Rodriguez has a 1st Chrome Prospect Card and 1st Chrome Autograph in 2018 Bowman Draft with his auto comping right around $70.
VIDEO: JORDAN WALKER 2022 MiLB HIGHLIGHTS
Before I even begin to talk about Jordan Walker, I want you to go to the 2:16 mark on the video link (I watched it about 20 times). I spent a few years in the MiLB as a pitcher and never heard a sound like that off of any bat. Walker makes extremely hard contact showing off a max exit velocity of 116 MPH in AA this past year. His loud contact is also very consistent allowing him to hit .306 in AA with 31 2B’s. He’s yet to reach the age of 21 and he’s by far the most explosive hitter on this list. I could waste your time talking about how video-game like his numbers were in AA for a 20 year-old but it’s much more fun to watch him blast balls all over the field in the video. As far as path goes, he got reps in the OF during the Arizona Fall League in 2022 and has the arm and athleticism to play anywhere but SS and catcher. Jordan Walker’s bat is special and the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t going to waste any time getting it into their MLB lineup. If he is able to stay healthy during 2023 Spring Training, he’ll break camp with Cards and will most likely be hitting somewhere in the middle of the order by the All-Star break. I think the NL ROY race will be a tight one between Walker and Corbin Carroll, who ranks #2 on this list. Jordan Walker has a 1st Chrome Prospect Card in 2020 Bowman Draft. His 1st Chrome Autos are a bit more complicated. His Autos were SP’d autos were redemptions in 2020 Draft and extremely difficult to find. All redemptions from 2020 Draft have recently expired which means that the Jordan Walker base auto pool will not increase. He does, although, have non-redemtion color autos out of the release that don’t come cheap. His SP base autos have been selling right around $700 for about a year now and I don’t foresee them getting much cheaper.
VIDEO: CORBIN CARROLL 2022 MLB HIGHLIGHTS
Corbin Carroll could be one of the most exciting players to watch in 2023. He made his MLB debut in 2022 with under 700 minor league plate appearances under his belt. He stands around 5’10” in high-tops but is tooled out and has an advanced internal baseball clock that elevates his game. Of the 5 players on this list who posted a career .300+ batting average and .200+ ISO in the minors, Carroll has the most defensive upside and ability to wreak havoc on the base paths. He hit for average and pumped his ISO into the .250 range with 4 HR’s and 9 2B’s in only 104 MLB AB’s. The Diamondbacks made a great move sending Dalton Varsho to the Blue Jays for Gabriel Moreno, opening an OF slot for Carroll in 2023. Before I pump Carroll too much there are some things that he will need to brush up on in the 2023 season to keep him in close contention for NL ROY. First, he didn’t take many walks and had an average exit velocity of 85.8 MPH showing me he made quite a bit of poor contact outside the strike zone in 2022. He also had an elevated ground ball rate of 47.9% leading to a 1.75 GB/FB ratio. Finally, Carroll struggled a bit facing lefties hitting only .179 against southpaws while he tore up righties with a near .300 BA. Between Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks are loaded with young OF talent. Alek Thomas was a Gold Glove Finalist in CF in 2022, so I’m thinking Carroll will stay in LF to start the season. No matter his defensive position, Carroll’s electric style of play will win over many fans in 2023. You can find Corbin Carroll 1st Chrome Prospect Cards and 1st Chrome Autos in 2019 Bowman Draft with recent sales on his raw autos ranging from $175-$200.
VIDEO: GUNNAR HENDERSON 2022 MLB HIGHLIGHTS
Before I had my second daughter, I was a HS baseball coach in Louisiana for a little over 10 years. Now I’m learning how to throw a softball underhand and using Let’s Talk Wax as a way to stay involved in the game. To get back to the point, in those ten years I watched a lot of players come and go. There were only a handful of kids that truly made an impression on me with their drive, attitude, work-ethic, humble nature, and leadership skills. I watched this video a few years ago and really fell in love with him as a prospect, especially when he mentioned that instead of buying a car with his signing bonus, he bought an indoor hitting facility. You can also watch this video at the 1:10 mark where Buck Britton says jokingly “Now that the camera is here, you’re finally doing some early work”? I think the big take-away from the latter video is Gunnar’s exceptional work-ethic. I’ve never met him, but I can tell you, he’s one of those handful of dudes. When you mix that type of personality with exceptional talent, you get the #1 player on this list Gunnar Henderson.
Henderson was one of a handful of players in AA & AAA at the age of 21 this past year. He excelled in the 2022 MiLB season where he hit .307 with a .278 ISO, 24 HR’s, 31 SB’s and quality K#’s. He hit a bit of a wall in 2021 in A+ but progressed through it and jumped on the fast track to the show. Gunnar handles velocity very well and I’ve seen video of him staying on top of 95+ FB’s in the top half of the zone. He’s got a big arm and solid glove that could keep him at SS or make him an ELITE defender at 2B or 3B. His average exit velocity was the highest of anyone on this list that made their MLB debut at 92.4 MPH (he made quite a bit of hard contact). Now, to be fair, I should mention a deep dive stat to be aware of. Henderson struggled quite a bit against lefties in his MLB debut with a L/R split of .130/.290 (even worse than Corbin Carroll’s). As almost all hitter struggle with a L/L matchup - hopefully he can at least narrow the gap in 2023 between his split. Gunnar is my prediction for 2023 AL ROY due to both his talent and off of the field qualities. You can find Gunnar Henderson 1st Chrome Prospect Cards and 1st Chrome Autos in 2019 Bowman Draft with his raw base autos comping around $200-$225.
That’s going to wrap up my Top 10 Rookies in 2023 list. There are probably about 25 more names I could have added to this list but I wanted to get the article out before 2023 Spring Training started, lol. The 2023 rookie class may not have as many superstar caliber players as 2022 but it's a very large pool of soon to be solid or beyond big league players. It’s often difficult to make these lists knowing there are more players who could impact their given MLB club in 2023. I made a post in my Facebook Group and the members came up with some quality candidates that were left off of my list. Prospecting does take some knowledge of the game, but remember, it’s mostly luck!