MiLB Park Factors & Prospecting

In the baseball card collecting hobby, we are constantly trying to predict future performance, which will in turn assist us in identifying if it’s best to buy, sell, or hold on certain players. The windows to buy and sell in the hobby are very small.If you have ever played or followed baseball, you know it is a game of streaks. A player can rip the cover off the ball for a month and not be able to hit the broad side of a barn for the next two months. Luck plays a factor as well. It has often been said that batting average is the stat which lies the most. A player can barrel up four balls at 113 mph right at the defense and end up 0-4 while another player can get a jam shot over the second baseman’s head, a swinging bunt dribbler down the third base line, and a soft, seeing-eye single just past the defense to end up 3-4. These kinds of anomalies have a way of sorting themselves out over a long season, but we often deal in smaller sample sizes. If you want to flip players for profit, you must get good at predicting when a player is primed for a hot or cold streak, so you know when to buy and sell. Looking at advanced stats can assist in explaining away bad stretches of hitting or help identify unsustainable box score success. Another tool I love to use is park factors.

Coors Field in Colorado, The Great American Ballpark (often called the Great American “Small” Park) in Cincinnati, and Minute Maid Park in Houston are hitters’ paradises. Conversely, Chase Field in Arizona, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Oakland Coliseum (at least for one more year) in Oakland, and Oracle Park in San Francisco are pitchers’ dreams. Many people who follow baseball know about these parks because major league baseball is more widely covered. The same holds true for the minors, it just is not as well known. This is an area we can exploit as collectors as we try to take advantage of the smaller windows to buy and sell.

Within the MiLB, there are 11 full-season leagues across four levels. Just like their major league counterparts, individual parks within those leagues vary in terms of run scoring context. I reviewed runs scored, HRs hit, and BABIP for each park over the last three seasons. Looking at these numbers for each team in home vs road games has helped identify which parks are better for overall hitting, run scoring potential, and home run hitting potential. On the flip side, they also identify which parks are poor hitting environments. Knowing this information can help pinpoint teams and players entering stretches of hitter-friendly environments (potential hot streaks). It is also very helpful in identifying which players to buy or sell after being promoted

to a higher level or traded to a different team. For example, Cole Young hit five HRs in 78 games with Low-A Modesto and hit six HRs after his promotion to High-A Everette. Five of those six HRs came at home, in Everette, and one was in hitter friendly Spokane/COL. Likewise, Gabriel Gonzalez hit nine HRs in 73 games last year with Low-A Modesto and mashed six HRs in his first 10 games after being promoted to High-A Everette. Ryan Clifford was traded from a very hitter friendly environment in Asheville/HOU to a bad hitter’s park in Brooklyn/NYM. He went from hitting .271/.356/.547 to .188/.307/.376, and his HR numbers were cut in half. So, without further ado, here are the rankings and best/worst promotions:

Best Overall Hitting Parks:

AAA: 1) OAK, 2) SD, 3) COL, 4) CHW, 5) TB, 6) MIN, 7) ARI, 8) KC AA: 1) ARI, 2) BAL, 3) TB, 4) MIN, 5) PHI, 6) STL

A+: 1) COL, 2) HOU, 3) OAK, 4) CIN, 5) PIT, 6) SEA A: 1) OAK, 2) KC, 3) MIL, 4) LAD, 5) PHI, 6) NYM

Worst Overall Hitting Parks:

AAA: 1) HOU, 2) SF, 3) DET, 4) MIA, 5) ATL, 6) PIT, 7) TX

AA: 1) ATL, 2) SEA, 3) SD, 4) LAD, 5) TX, 6) CLE, 7) PIT, 8) NYM A+: 1) LAA, 2) ATL, 3) DET, 4) NYM, 5) MIA, 6) KC, 7) ARI

A: 1) SEA, 2) CHC, 3) MIA, 4) BAL, 5) STL, 6) TOR

Best Overall Power Parks:

AAA: 1) CHW, 2) OAK, 3) SD, 4) COL, 5) TB, 6) MIN, 7) KC, 8) NYM AA: 1) ARI, 2) BAL, 3) LAA, 4) CHC, 5) PHI, 6) MIN

A+: 1) PIT, 2) CLE, 3) HOU, 4) OAK, 5) SEA, 6) CIN

A: 1) OAK, 2) ATL, 3) KC, 4) ARI, 5) CIN, 6) LAD

Worst Overall Power Parks:

AAA: 1) HOU, 2) MIL, 3) ATL, 4) DET, 5) LAD, 6) PHI

AA: 1) ATL, 2) SD, 3) SEA, 4) OAK, 5) CLE, 6) TX, 7) SF

A+: 1) LAA, 2) MIA, 3) ATL, 4) DET, 5) ARI, 6) SD

A: 1) SEA, 2) STL, 3) MIA, 4) CHC, 5) LAA, 6) TB, 7) BOS, 8) SD

Best Hitter Promotions:

SEA: A to A+

HOU: A to A+

PIT: A to A+

SD: A to A+

PHI: A to A+

STL: A+ to AA

ARI: A+ to AA

LAA: A+ to AA

WAS: AA to AAA

SD: AA to AAA

OAK: AA to AAA

COL: AA to AAA

Worst Hitter Promotions:

LAD: A to A+

SF: A to A+

MIL: A to A+

NYM: A to A+

KC: A to A+

ATL: A to A+

ARI: A to A+

CLE: A+ to AA

OAK: A+ to AA

SEA: A+ to AA

COL: A+ to AA

PIT: A+ to AA

PHI: AA to AAA